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Old 01-28-2011, 11:39 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Egyptian Revolution

Thought this deserves it's own thread now.

Current status (as I understand it)

Mobarak has told the whole cabinet to resign.

He made a televised speech saying the rioters were trying to destabalise Egypt, he would not leave the Presidency and he would continue with his reform program.

His speech ended about 20 mins ago and men are now gathering in greater numbers to go back on the streets.

The questions now are:

If Mobarak gets the message and goes who would take over? He has ensured there is no stable opposition ready to take over.

Is the army strong and aware enough to keep control until a new government can be put in place?

If a new government is put in place, corruption is so endemic in Egypt how would they put a stop to it? The economy will not permit a massive pay rise for government workers (including police and army) so how do you stop it??

..

Listening to Obama's speech on the subject now .. he just said the future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people .. the US Government will continue to stand up for the right of the Egyptian people ... a far cry from Clinton's "we believe the Egyptian government is stable" and while I realise this is political manouvering because they can see the protests won't be a flash in the pan it is a relief to see them backing away from Mobarak.

damn it, I won't get any sleep tonight
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Old 01-29-2011, 12:27 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

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Originally Posted by Muslimwoman View Post
damn it, I won't get any sleep tonight
I can understand. You, your family and the country are in my prayers.

We've been watching and listening.

One analyst here said that the fact that they closed the net, facebook and twitter and the protests continued was evidence that social networks are not influential in this...

I think the fact that he shut down the net and cell service further inflamed everyone, made them more cohesive and more people join them....big mistake.

What do you think?
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Old 01-29-2011, 04:10 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

It seems reasonable for the guy to think it is his sand box. He writes the rules, pays for the army, and leads people.

"Violence and destruction will not lead to the reforms that they seek..." (Commander in Chief Obama).

Doesn't the US government use money, violence, and destruction, to institute reform? Shock and awe? Hearts and minds?
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:59 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Apparently we won't hear from Muslimwoman for a couple days because that fool Mubarak has SHUT DOWN THE WHOLE INTERNET in Egypt. This will cause huge problems for their banking system if it continues, so I expect the Internet will be back up there soon; it is really a sign of great desperation.
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Old 01-29-2011, 07:30 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Updates: Cairo Airport is not shut down, exactly, but many flights have been cancelled or delayed, and thousands of worried foreigners are camping out there hoping to get out; while some tourists instead are trying to get to cities with major demonstrations hoping to see the history.
Death toll was only a couple a day when this started, but has been dozens a day more recently.
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Old 01-29-2011, 08:11 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Here is a link to the Al Jazeera's English Online Live streaming news:

Al Jazeera English: Live Stream - Watch Now - Al Jazeera English
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Old 01-29-2011, 09:21 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

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I can understand. You, your family and the country are in my prayers.
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Apparently we won't hear from Muslimwoman for a couple days because that fool Mubarak has SHUT DOWN THE WHOLE INTERNET in Egypt.
Thank you for your prayers Wil ... BUT my husband and I are in the UK now. He is as sick as a chip that he is missing his chance to be involved in getting Mobarak out.

However my father in law was hit in the head by a tear gas grenade yesterday .. he is ok hamdolillah.

My sisters in law have all taken their children to sleep in their mothers house, as she lives in a small village away from the trouble but apparently it is happening in every town, not just the big cities we are seeing on the tv. Men are out in the streets to protect neighbourhoods (homes and businesses).

A town near to ours had a group of men yesterday declare anarchy, they marched on the police station, set fire to it and took all the guns. The police fled (couldn't blame them, they are so hated for their corruption and brutality) and "the people" are now running the town ... it's chaos but Mobarak HAS to go.

People hate the police with a passion but support and respect the army. You can see slogans written on tanks saying Mobarak out and you have to think about that ... the army have tanks and guns but protestors were still able to paint slogans all over the tanks.

Everything now rests on what the army decide to do.

The Muslim Brotherhood has lost a lot of respect this week. They said on Tuesday they attended elections and lost so would not be part of protests but when they saw how big it was going to be and everyone was on FB saying they woulod have a massive protest after Friday prayers suddenly they decided they would support the protests.

The internet was very responsible for this according to my husband, it was all organised on FB. The internet and phone blackout didn't happen until the protests started and by then it was too late.

I will share this email I got from my husband today as it's from an Egyptian and demonstrates the mood of people who lived under Mobaraks rule all their lives. I asked about the rumours that secret police were rioters to make the protests violent ... he replied:

this is just **** ppl , the police care for them lives only now and for them offices and they don't care for the streets , so the bad ppl now try to use this chance to steal and break into shops and even banks , but the poeple make from themself police to defence every town and when they catch someone they give him to the army.

the army try to be in the middle but I saw just now they supporting the poeple and give them food and heal them health if they hurt and even poeple written on tanks death for mobarak or mobarak down and they didn't even remove it , they know he will go and they can see it .


I also asked him about the billions Mobarak will run off with if he leaves Egypt ... his reply was something along the lines, we will pack the money in bags for him, as long as he goes.
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Old 01-29-2011, 09:25 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Oh as Israel always comes up in subjects concerning Egypt I asked hubby about Israel ... he said nothing will happen, even if the Muslim brotherhood got power. The time now is to build our country back to how it was. We were a rich country 50 years ago and it will take 10 years to be good again, we must think about that now.

He did suggest that the attitude toward Palestine would change in his opinion, Egyptians see Palestinians as brothers so don't like Mobaraks treatment of them or the closed border.

He also likes el-Baradie but doesn't necessarily trust him because he has been out of Egypt, living in the west, for 30 years.

We need a strong leader to rise from the ashes.
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Old 01-30-2011, 01:31 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Glad to hear you are in a safe place, even if your husband is "missing the fun"; and glad to hear messages are getting out (the government's efforts to shut down communications are being fought by hackers worldwide setting up various end-runs that I don't understand).

The problem with finding new leadership is that good political minds have been crushed (if not dead then in an angered/paranoid state from staying underground), or driven into exile (so that like Baradei, they may have trouble re-establishing connections), or co-opted into the regime (and even if personally clean, will not be able to wash off the taint). I am reminded of the story of Pepi II, last Pharoah of the "Old Kingdom":

He reigned for 92 years, a record unlikely to be broken. The first 30 years were a regency, since he came to the throne as a child, and when he came of age the regents wouldn't give up power. Then a couple of the regents died and Pepi managed to kill the others, so the next 30 years were an absolute monarchy, where he travelled all up and down the country micro-managing everything and ordering the execution of anybody other than him who might be gaining some respect and power, including his sons and heirs. Then he slipped into senility, but stayed physically healthy until past the century mark, and his last 30 years were anarchy, because everybody was still terrified of the old man, who would have moments of lucidity and lash out at anybody who seemed to be trying to take over. After his death, Egypt broke into pieces (the "First Intermediate Period", lasted a very long time). Take this not as a prediction (I am moderately hopeful things will work out) but as a cautionary parable.
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Old 01-30-2011, 04:29 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

I understand what you are saying Bob, it is my fear at the moment. Mobarak created a political vacuum to ensure no strong opposition could form .... well we can see tonight that he has removed the police and opened prison gates to cause fear among the people and encourage them to believe they still need him to control things.

The problem as I see it is that Egyptians won't completely trust anyone who has been living in the West or anyone from the very top echelon of the army, as they are often seen as Mobaraks cronnies. ElBaradei shot himself in the foot a little when he left Egypt after the elections, had he stayed he would have more support now. I can't see them accepting anyone with close ties to the US, like the new Vice President.

I wouldn't rule out a win by Muslim Brotherhood if there was a period of army rule and then free elections ... they are entrenched in even the smallest community and tend to have the respect of the people (ie they are known not to be corrupt and that is the major issue here). I could also envisage a joint government formed with someone like ElBaladei heading a group of the Brotherhood.

We will see what tomorrow brings.
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Old 01-30-2011, 09:27 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

What do you think is the likelihood that the political situation in Egypt will result in autocratic government?
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Old 01-30-2011, 02:50 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Hi Muslimwoman.

I'm glad you and your family are safe. We said prayers today at Mass for the people of Egypt.

As your husband says, change will come, and it will take years to establish itself ... your husband sounds like a wise man.

Today in the Roman Liturgical cycle, we begin reading the Beatitudes, the first of which is "blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth" (Matthew 5:4).
The meek are the lowly and the unheard, they being the ones who believe that power and authority rests, not with them, but with God alone. They live in hope.

But there are times when the voice of the meek is heard, and I think this is one of them. It seems to me that if Islam means anything, it means 'submission to God', and I opened the Q'ran to find the meaning of God in Islam:

Surah 1 - Al Fatiha THE OPENING
"In the name of God, Most Gracious, Most Merciful.
Praise be to God, the Cherisher and Sustainer of the Worlds;
Most Gracious, Most Merciful;
Master of the Day of Judgement.
Thee do we worship, and Thine aid we seek.
Show us the straight way,
The way of those on whom Thou hast bestowed Thy Grace, those whose (portion) is not wrath, and who go not astray."

God, Most Gracious, Most Merciful, bless and keep you and yours in this time of trouble.

In hope,

Thomas
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Old 01-30-2011, 05:01 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

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What do you think is the likelihood that the political situation in Egypt will result in autocratic government?
Very little, it is actually what the Egyptians are trying to get away from. Egypt has a puppet government to keep the west quiet but it is a police state ruled for 30 years by one man, who simply ignored the courts and at one time even imprisoned the high court judges who opposed his ignoring the legal system.

As Muslims we believe in regular change in leadership and free, open elections .. it has been ingrained in Islam since the Four Rightly Guided Caliphs... despite what tends to happen in the Middle East.

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I'm glad you and your family are safe. We said prayers today at Mass for the people of Egypt.
Salam Thomas

Thank you so much for your prayers and kind words for the Egyptian people at this time.

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Today in the Roman Liturgical cycle, we begin reading the Beatitudes, the first of which is "blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth" (Matthew 5:4).
When I first went to live in Egypt ... gosh about 6 years ago now I think ... I couldn't believe the hatred for Mobarak and I remember talking to my father in law about the French revolution, saying the people are so vast in numbers that a ruler can only rule with their acceptance ... a time will come when the people had enough and they will rise, then Mobarak will have to kill the whole country or go.

I am no Prophet and I said those words without any belief they would happen, I was just trying to give him hope for change ... little did I know this would happen in my lifetime. I am so proud of the Egyptian people and pray Allah (swt) will protect them and judge kindly those who have died to bring freedom to the people, all Egyptian people whether Muslim or Coptic Christian ... they need a time of freedom and peace now.
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Old 01-30-2011, 05:21 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

According to my husband some of the looters caught were found to be secret police and had been ordered to loot in order to make people believe that if Mobarak goes nobody would be safe ... so better the devil you know.

Is this true ... I don't know ... would I put it past Mobarak ... sounds exactly the sort of thing he would do.

Tomorrow will be a telling day, the police are due to return to the streets ... will they come out all guns blazing or work with the people to stop looting and destruction? Will the people tire of the unrest and simply allow Mobarak to stay for the time being in order to have a normal life again? Time will tell.

.

A question for you all .... if Mobarak sends the army in and they agree to attack their own people, keeping power for Mobarak, how do you think the Western governments will react ... would it be a step too far (ie killing hundreds of peaceful protestors) or is the Egyptian barrier between the Arab nations and Israel too important to lose?
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Old 01-30-2011, 09:03 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Re: Egyptian Revolution

Popular revulsion in the West if Mubarak tries to keep power violently would be, I think, too strong for any Western politicians to ignore regardless of any other motives.

Hilary Clinton said Mubarak should "take a new path" and a wag suggested, "Yeah, like maybe a path toward Switzerland or somewhere."
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