# Theory of probability

Discussion in 'Theology' started by future hope, Jul 22, 2010.

1. ### future hopeInterfaith Forums

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In mathematics there is a theory known as ‘Theory of Probability’. If you have two options, out of which one is right, and one is wrong, the chances that you will chose the right one is half, i.e. one out of the two will be correct. You have 50% chances of being correct. Similarly if you toss a coin the chances that your guess will be correct is 50% (1 out of 2) i.e. 1/2. If you toss a coin the second time, the chances that you will be correct in the second toss is again 50% i.e. half. But the chances that you will be correct in both the tosses is half multiplied by half (1/2 x 1/2) which is equal to 1/4 i.e. 50% of 50% which is equal to 25%. If you toss a coin the third time, chances that you will be correct all three times is (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2) that is 1/8 or 50% of 50% of 50% that is 12½%.

A dice has got six sides. If you throw a dice and guess any number between 1 to 6, the chances that your guess will be correct is 1/6. If you throw the dice the second time, the chances that your guess will be correct in both the throws is (1/6 x 1/6) which is equal to 1/36. If you throw the dice the third time, the chances that all your three guesses are correct is (1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6) is equal to 1/216 that is less than 0.5 %.

Let us apply this theory of probability to the Qur’an, and assume that a person has guessed all the information that is mentioned in the Qur’an which was unknown at that time. Let us discuss the probability of all the guesses being simultaneously correct.

At the time when the Qur’an was revealed, people thought the world was flat, there are several other options for the shape of the earth. It could be triangular, it could be quadrangular, pentagonal, hexagonal, heptagonal, octagonal, spherical, etc. Lets assume there are about 30 different options for the shape of the earth. The Qur’an rightly says it is spherical, if it was a guess the chances of the guess being correct is 1/30.

The light of the moon can be its own light or a reflected light. The Qur’an rightly says it is a reflected light. If it is a guess, the chances that it will be correct is 1/2 and the probability that both the guesses i.e the earth is spherical and the light of the moon is reflected light is 1/30 x 1/2 = 1/60.

Further, the Qur’an also mentions every living thing is made of water. Every living thing can be made up of either wood, stone, copper, aluminum, steel, silver, gold, oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, oil, water, cement, concrete, etc. The options are say about 10,000. The Qur’an rightly says that everything is made up of water. If it is a guess, the chances that it will be correct is 1/10,000 and the probability of all the three guesses i.e. the earth is spherical, light of moon is reflected light and everything is created from water being correct is 1/30 x 1/2 x 1/10,000 = 1/60,000 which is equal to about .0017%.

The Qur’an speaks about hundreds of things that were not known to men at the time of its revelation. Only in three options the result is .0017%. I leave it upto you, to work out the probability if all the hundreds of the unknown facts were guesses, the chances of all of them being correct guesses simultaneously and there being not a single wrong guess. It is beyond human capacity to make all correct guesses without a single mistake, which itself is sufficient to prove to a logical person that the origin of the Qur’an is Divine.

2. ### wilUNeyeR1Moderator

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Namaste Future Hope,

Welcome to I.O look forward to further contemplations with you. Someone from Saudi on an interfaith site...a rare occurance indeed. We will be interested in your take on subjects that pertain to your country and its theocracy.

How does this analysis stack up to the things the Koran is wrong about?

Or where one stretches to make the Koran correct?

Using science to define/prove/explain scripture is always a problem, as science and understanding move on that explanation no longer holds water.

I prefer to take all scripture for what it is...

3. ### bananabrainawkward squadnik

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so, future hope, you have no doubt?

not at all?

not one iota?

are you sure?

then why do you feel that you have to prove it to others?

if you have no doubt, then you must be a terrifying person to disagree with.

are you 100% sure you are seeing things the right way?
are you 100% sure you have *all* the information?
are you 100% sure 100% of your teachers knew all this and were 100% correct about how they taught you?

b'shalom

bananabrain

4. ### DogbrainNew Member

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Yes, but you obviously do not understand it. What is the difference between prior probability and posterior probability, for example? You seem to have utter lack of understanding given your mis-application of probability theory. Of course, since your screed is simply filled with the most blatant of lies, your ignorance regarding probability theory is beside the point.

That is a lie. More than 1,000 years BEFORE the Qur'an was written, the Greeks were teaching that the world was spherical or close to spherical. This included the Pythagoreans, Parmenides, and Empedocles. Plato and Aristotle taught that the world was round and not flat. Roughly 800 years before the Qur'an was written, Erostothenes estimated the diameter of a round earth to within 10% of modern measurements. Seleucus of Seleucia at about the same time stated that the world was spherical. It is well known that the works of these men made it to Arab lands before the time of Muhammed. Your Qur'an said nothing at all remarkable and only stated the common knowledge of its day. It did not invent the idea that the world is round.
Why do you lie in the name of Allah?

So what? Anaxagore of Clazomene said that the moon's light is reflected light ONE THOUSAND YEARS BEFORE your Qur'an.
In other words, if you claim the Qur'an came up with this first, you spread another lie in the name of Allah.

This statement is a lie. Every living thing has water in it, but they are not made up of water. Therefore, your Qur'an teaches lies, if it says what you say. Likewise, it is no difficult observation that all living things have a significant amount of water in them. To claim that the Qur'an was somehow special in noting that water is important to life is yet another lie.

All three of your examples turn out to be essentially dishonest. Both the sphericity of the earth and the reflectiveness of moonlight were known a thousand years before the Qur'an. Therefore, claiming that the Qur'an came up with them is to lie twice. Living things are not "made up of" water. They contain water, but that is different. Therefore, a third lie.

You pile lie upon lie upon lie and say this proves the "truth" of the Qur'an. All it proves is that at least one person is willing to tell blatant and bold lies in the name of Islam.

5. ### wilUNeyeR1Moderator

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Namaste Dogbrain,

Is there a reason that instead of pointing out the innacuracies and discussing them, instead of educating you insist on lambasting this individual?

Is this a method of discussion or simply derision?

Each of us lives in a religion that is based on faith, a house of cards even that a nonbeliever could shoot holes in and does often. We have our beliefs and understandings, but is there a reason for the tone of your response.

I think the fact that we are an interfaith forum should ask for at least a modecum of decorem. I know not all have the patience...but I'd like to see this site grow discussion and openess and when new folks come in inform rather than squash under their boot.

As I type I see the error in my own ways and ask that folks shove me back on my purported path when they see similar reactions from me.

6. ### Ben MasadaNew Member

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The theory of probability can be applied as a form of belief based on the probability of something to happen or to exist. This concept is what prevents the wiseman from being a fool. Taking for instance the existence of God, if we believe on the basis of probability, we are free from the charges addressed by King David in Psalm 14:1 against those who declare to be certain that God does not exist. We are not expected to prove the existence of God, but by the same token, not to deny for certain that He does not exist.
Ben

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