CORONA VIRUS

Discussion in 'Health' started by RJM Corbet, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. Cino

    Cino Big Love! (Atheist mystic) Admin

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    Yes, thanks.

    The German gov't announced a "lock-down light" for November. No traveling, no bars or restaurants or theater or museums etc. Schools stay open, though. No mandatory home-office for office jobs, can't trust people to do their work, of course. Religious places of worship can perform public services, indoors, singing and all. An organ concert in a church counts as a religious service.

    Oh no, I don't see any overtly uptight protestant work ethics or church-driven agenda in this, either. Must be a pure coincidence the head of government is a vicar's daughter and member of the christian democrats.

    But yeah, grumbling from a comparatively comfortable place, here.

    (I do support anything to cut down on the spread. I don't agree with the choices made by the government, they seem so transparently rigged. I'm pretty sure I caught whatever it was via my child's school visits)
     
  2. Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine Junior Moderator, Intro Moderator

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    Denmark had to cull their mink population because the virus has been found (mutated) among the mink population, plus there might've been some Danish people who have contracted the new virus strain. :(

    I will attempt to find the article again with more details if anyone wants verification.

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine
     
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  3. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    15 million mink. The poor things live their lives in tiny little cages. They should do something about the people who buy mink coats, imo.

    Anyway, they seem to have gone back on the idea:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environ...for-mass-mink-cull-after-covid-mutation-fears
     
  4. A Cup Of Tea

    A Cup Of Tea Well-Known Member

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  5. Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine Junior Moderator, Intro Moderator

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  6. Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine Junior Moderator, Intro Moderator

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    This video's quite interesting imho:



    There's an interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci as well!

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine
     
  7. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    But there are always two sides. This is written by a doctor. I’ve pulled out a few bits, because I know most people don’t read these links with much attention. It's necessary to read the full blog in this case, before commenting. That is: please don't unless you have.

    Of course it’s understood this is a blog post, which means it presents one side of the story, and there will be other doctors who disagree and present counter evidence.

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/

    “… In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.

    There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.

    In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).

    So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.


    “… So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality … Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:

    ‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.

    Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.

    Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3

    Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.

    Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.

    It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]

    Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.

    If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.

    Here are the figures from England

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.

    What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.

    Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    What of Slovenia?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].

    So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.

    Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Spot the difference. There is none.

    Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.

    There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.

    So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.

    The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead …” etc
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2021
  8. Aupmanyav

    Aupmanyav Search, be your own guru.

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    Yeah, Pakistan has done better with no restrictions. Worldometers. Sure, the statics may not be exact.
    But then, we (majority here) do not eat beef (we do not get it in many states). :)

    Pakistan: Infections 482,178, Deaths 10,176
    India: Infections 10,286,709, Deaths 149,018
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2021
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  9. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    And more about the reliability of the covid test. This is from the British Medical Journal, a completely solid source.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
    Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19
    What we know, and what we don’t


    "How infectious are people who test positive but have no symptoms? And, what is their contribution to transmission of live virus? Unusually in disease management, a positive test result is the sole criterion for a covid-19 case. Normally, a test is a support for clinical diagnosis, not a substitute.

    ... The only test for live virus is viral culture. PCR and lateral flow tests do not distinguish live virus. No test of infection or infectiousness is currently available for routine use. As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious ... cycle threshold (Ct) values from PCR tests are not direct measures of viral load and are subject to error ... While viral load seems to be similar in people with and without symptoms, the presence of RNA does not necessarily represent transmissible live virus.

    ... The UK’s testing strategy needs to be reset in line with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies’ recommendation that “Prioritising rapid testing of symptomatic people is likely to have a greater impact on identifying positive cases and reducing transmission than frequent testing of asymptomatic people in an outbreak area.”

    ... Coronavirus infection surveys by the Office for National Statistics and the REACT survey could be expanded to include clinical follow-up of participants combined with tests of viral load and viral cultures. The absence of strong evidence that asymptomatic people are a driver of transmission is another good reason for pausing the roll out of mass testing in schools, universities, and communities."
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
  10. Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine Junior Moderator, Intro Moderator

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  11. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    This is for the UK. You enter your postcode, and it gives the number of covid deaths in the surrounding area. In my area one death over the whole period March-November of a person tested positive within the last 28 days, but did not necessarily -- in fact probably did not -- die of covid? Which is not to deny there are indeed lives cut short by covid.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...athsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12
    Deaths involving COVID-19 - Interactive map
    Use our interactive map to explore the number of COVID-19 deaths in your area.

    Coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread across the vast majority of neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The interactive map allows you to see the number of deaths occurring in the period March to November 2020, where COVID-19 was mentioned as a cause on the death certificate.


    (Sorry the image is too big to upload here, but if you open the link and type in my postcode TQ11 0ER, it will come up and you will see that it covers a large area)

    Perhaps there is somethinh similar in the US?
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
    (Click on the Search icon to enter your own address)
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
  12. stranger

    stranger wolfwing, a feral angel

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    According to the John Hopkins map my particular county is showing 2.8 thousand confirmed cases and 25 deaths. The total population of the county is a little over 43,000.

    That said, covid is coming a little closer to home among the people I work around (construction workers). I took early retirement last year but still have to supplement my retirement benefits by taking a small job here and there, or providing help to an existing crew as needed, so still have to get out in the thick of things from time to time.

    Quite a few of the people I work around have tested positive at some point. Of those, most have had mild symptoms (and in one case, a very young guy, no symptoms at all). The most serious case was an older gentleman who developed pneumonia either during or in the aftermath of his covid infection. He seems to be recovering nicely now, however.

    I have been tested only once (along with my brother) and thankfully we got a negative. My doctor says the vaccine could be available to our age group in a couple of months, so perhaps a glimmer of hope there.
     
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  13. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    Tested positive? Or clinically confirmed?
     
  14. stranger

    stranger wolfwing, a feral angel

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    RJM, unknown. The graph at the bottom of the page has one box that says "confirmed" and another that says "deaths". I guess it would depend on what their definition of confirmed is. I'll try to look into that further when I get time.
     
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  15. Cino

    Cino Big Love! (Atheist mystic) Admin

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  16. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    Quite. We are mostly medical laymen who don't have a full grasp of all these medical terms and statistics. However it seems clear the positive test does not mean a person actually carries the live virus, nor the death recorded as covid is actually a result of covid?

    The statistics are misleading, and loaded to exaggerate, imo.

    EDiT
    As acknowledged by doctors and by the Scientific Advisory Group and by the British Medical Journal
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
  17. Thomas

    Thomas Administrator Admin

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    My postcode, which being London is a fraction of the area of yours, is 25 deaths in March, 7 deaths in November.

    As ever, two things here:
    The measures taken by the Govt are to control the impact on health services. This second round of the latest mutation seems to be hospitalising a greater number of people, and in London all hospitals are now on emergency measures, becoming overwhelmed, and we have pictures of ambulances treating people onboard as they queue to get into A&E.

    I have a niece who was hit by a car just before Christmas. She suffered more than a dozen fractures, from the ankle to the skull. Thankfully recovering well, but the nursing team was anxious to get her home because they had COVID in the hospital and on her ward.

    I know of someone who suffers from cancer and was given weeks to live eleven years ago. He's on a COVID ward and is now being sent home, as there's nothing more the hospital can do. He will most likely go this time round, and COVID will most likely appear on the death certificate.

    It is a fact that he suffered other health complications, but the fact is that up until he caught COVID, he was doing OK.

    It's like pneumonia, 'the old man's friend'. How many certificates record pneumonia as cause of death, when in fact it was invariably an underlying condition that brought the person down, and pneumonia than finished them off. In the same was as my uncle died from a massive dose of morphine, but the morphine was being administered to counter an aggressive cancer.

    So it's not a scam, or the intention to mislead, it is simply what it is. Occam's razor, if you like.

    +++

    The UK is weathering this pandemic significantly worse than our European neighbours, and there are a number of factors at play here:

    1-1: Too little, too late. The number one cause — we were slow top react, we lost the initiative, and we never recovered. We've been on the back foot, reacting ever since.
    1-2: Incompetence and mismanagement — the billions wasted on jingoistic exercises in flag waving, akin to stranding at the stern of the Titanic, has led to one expensive failure after another. Companies like Dyson and McLaren we were informed were developing world-beating respiratory kit, all quietly slipped off into silence when they failed.
    1-3: Billions given to friends and backers of the current leadership to develop a Test and Trace which still does not work while off-the shelf solutions are readily available — And do remember our Prime Minister telling the House that no-one had an effective T&T when, in fact, there were at least 14 countries who had just that.
    1-4: Outright Profiteering. The billions in contracts awarded via the 'friends and neighbours' fast-track system, with neither oversight nor checks and balances — companies linked to Cummings, Gove and Hancock, companies which have no record in the field, companies which began trading literally hours before being awarded lucrative contracts for duff kit — with no comeback so far — while other companies with proven records were not even invited to tender or acknowledged when they did.
    1-5: Operation Moonshot. Remember that? Another 'Big Deal' that has since shown itself to have been a fantasy right from the get-go.

    2-1: The British economy rests primarily on London-based financial instruments market, and then nationally on the service, leisure and entertainment industries. These latter are hardest hit in a pandemic scenario, and are industries with little or no resilience. We have no real manufacturing base, we're not as strong agriculturally, we don't have easy access to cheap labour and resources.
    2-2: These markets were always living on borrowed time. The necessary lifestyle changes required to weather upcoming environmental issues — the cessation of cheap air travel, for example — have been brought forward in a pandemic 'bump'.
    2-3: If the UK was wise, we'd see the writing on the wall. Of course we're not, so we wave the flag as we sink into obscurity.
    2-4: Rest assured though, that all our woes will be blamed on Johnny Foreigner ... anything that goes wrong from here on will be down to those nasty Europeans.
     
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  18. Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine Junior Moderator, Intro Moderator

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    Sounds vaguely familiar over here. Prioritizing "economic growth"/the "stock market" instead of people's lives and disorganized reactions/information, etc. Oh, and let us not forget all of the BS/MS/PhD concerning masks!

    Hell, a senator-elect succumbed to COVID-19 before he took the oath of office at the tender age of 41, leaving behind his wife and two children (the children aren't even in their teens [not sure if they're even ten yet]!) I posted his stuff on the "Media Star" thread when he passed.

    Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine
     
  19. Aupmanyav

    Aupmanyav Search, be your own guru.

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    That is real bad. Sorry to hear about that.
    Indian Covid situation is far better in the last seven days (but one never knows).
    New cases 18088, Recovered 21,314, Deaths 264.
    Mother 98, admitted to hospital 3 days ago. BP 80/40. Had a temporary pace maker installed. Recovered, came home today. Hope she does 100 and I am able to bid good-bye to her. Worries of old age.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
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  20. RJM Corbet

    RJM Corbet God Feeds the Ravens Admin

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    So sorry to hear that, Aup. Glad she is back home with you now.

    Stict stay at home lockdown here, began today.

    It's strange being here alone at home, knowing it's not just me but the whole street, the whole town, the whole county, all the other towns and villages and cities -- every home, every person -- the whole population of the United Kingdom, and of Europe -- everything closed -- every single person under 'house arrest' -- hundreds of millions of people like me, trying to get through the day. And tomorrow. And the next day.

    The lockdown here is now until at least the middle of February and probably even until the end of March.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021

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