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- Thread starter rstrats
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Switch ... if only to piss off Monte Hall.

In the beginning the odds are 1 out of 3. After your choice the odds (objectively) change to 50%. But you do not know the odds of him being for or against you. So his selection of curtain #2 remains 50/50. If there are no penalties (that is curtain #2 does not sentence you to a fine or forfiture) the odds of what you know (50/50 instead of 1 out of 3) should lead you to take the curtain (all other factors being equal).

re: "If he [the host] knows where the car is..."

He does

re: "...and is puropsefully leading you astray..."

He isn't.

re: ".... or if he is trying to help you..."

He isn't.

re: "In the beginning the odds are 1 out of 3. After your choice the odds (objectively) change to 50%."

At no time do any of the curtains have a 50% chance.

re: "If there is a car, and if the only choices left are curtains 2 or 3..."

After the host opens curtain #3, the only choices left are curtains #1 and #2. Curtain #3 is out of the picture. There is a 1/3rd chance that it is curtain #1 and a 2/3rds chance that is curtain #2.

Maybe I need to get my glasses checked!

D

Umm.... How about ask Wayne Brady?

Red dawg, what is a "Wayne Brady"?

D

Game Show Host of Lets Make A Deal.

Aloha.. Allen

AllenPapapetrou,

What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3?

Hi rstrats,

Mathematically, the odds are still 1 in 3 regardless of what the host says.

Assuming my initial pick came from my gut, I'd stick with it.

Aloha.. Allen

Why would you want to stick with only one door when you could switch to two doors?

Like I'm stickling to my prior response, I'm sticking to my first, gut, feeling without any additional relevant info.

Relevant Info, such as:

One curtain was picked at random to be empty

Of the remaining two curtains the next empty curtain was picked:

a. By drawing a random number between 1 and 100 for each of the other curtains.

b. If the number for the left hand curtain was higher than the number for the other curtain and the number for the other curtain was over 70 then the left hand curtain remains empty.

Now what are the odds for curtain I first picked.

The odds are the same because what I suggested as relevant information is Not actually relevant. Thus, I stay with my first pick.

Aloha.. Allen

I still don't see why you think that being given the chance to look behind 2 curtains isn't better than having only 1 curtain to look behind.

I still don't see why you think that being given the chance to look behind 2 curtains isn't better than having only 1 curtain to look behind.

What! I never meant to imply that.

With 3 curtains the odds are 1 out of three.

With 2 curtains the odds are 1 out of two.

Thus, the odds on my gut feeling have just improved.

Aloha.. Allen

your curtain only has a crumby Kia Rio behind it! Take the other one. That's where the patio set and BBQ grill are!

I don't need another car. I'll go with my gut feeling for the lanai accoutrements.

Aloha.. Allen