re: "What! I never meant to imply that."

OK, so I'll ask again - What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3?

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- Thread starter rstrats
- Start date

re: "What! I never meant to imply that."

OK, so I'll ask again - What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3?

I'd stay with my gut feeling of #1.

re: "What! I never meant to imply that."

OK, so I'll ask again - What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3?

Now the odds are 1 out of two. The 1 being the car and the 2 being the combination of #2 and #3.

By now do you get it, rstrats? I'm always going to go with my gut feelings in this kind of situation.

Aloha.. Allen

re: "I'd stay with my gut feeling of #1. Now the odds are 1 out of two."

That is incorrect. There is a 2/3rds chance that the car is behind curtain #2.

re: "By now do you get it, rstrats?"

No. I just don't understand why you wouldn't rather have 2 curtains to look behind as opposed to only 1.

I was incorrect. I was confused between the choice of the number of the curtain and the desire to pick the car.

The odds of any of the three items being behind curtain #1 is one out of three. The odds of any of the items being behind curtain #2 is two out of three.

So if the three items are: Empty, Bar-B-Q, and Car, then of the three possible arrangements of items behind curtain #2:

Two give me Empty and something else.

Two give me Bar-B-Q and something else.

And

Two give me Car and something else.

So the odds of the arrangements behind curtain #2 giving me the Car are two out of three, and I switch. Unless my gut gives me a much stronger feeling about curtain #1 than I had when there were three curtains.

Nice exercise. Thanks for helping me to end my confusion in confounding the number of curtains, and the number of items, when selecting a desired outcome from a fixed number of arrangements.

Aloha.. Allen

Don't do it Allen,

your curtain only has a crumby Kia Rio behind it! Take the other one. That's where the patio set and BBQ grill are!

Could be worse: the car could be a Yugo.

Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine