Is iran planning anything on the 22nd?

Chezz

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i have been reading a little about august 22nd.



Filed under: Iran Watch by Chad Evans at 9:35 pm EDT
Professor Bernard Lewis asks in the Opinion Journal what Iran has in store for August 22, 2006. This year, based upon the Islamic calendar not being the same as our calendar, August 22 coincides with August Rajab 27 which is the date in which Mohammed rose into Heaven. And indeed Iran has increased its rhetoric indicating they have a surprise in store for the world on the 22nd. What is this surprise and on whom is the surprise going to sprung upon?
A week ago Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told that on August 22 the Jerusalem sky will light up, a reference to Mohammed’s ascension into Heaven. This sky won’t light up through divine means, but rather because Iran wants it to. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly relied on the Shia religious scriptures fortelling the second coming of the 12th Imam (covered in depth at ITB), and as a brief summary of the story of the 12th Imam’s return, it is much like the apocalypse scenarios in other religions except that in Ahmadinejad’s version it is a positive thing to bring about the end of the world and he has stated he wants to be the one to do so.
What could cause the Jerusalem sky from lighting up to the magnitude it allegedly did when Mohammed rose to Heaven other than a nuclear bomb? Would Ahmadinejad though risk the lives of fellow Muslims and destroy Islamic holy sites? Lewis answers thusly:
The phrase “Allah will know his own” is usually used to explain such apparently callous unconcern; it means that while infidel, i.e., non-Muslim, victims will go to a well-deserved punishment in hell, Muslims will be sent straight to heaven. According to this view, the bombers are in fact doing their Muslim victims a favor by giving them a quick pass to heaven and its delights–the rewards without the struggles of martyrdom. School textbooks tell young Iranians to be ready for a final global struggle against an evil enemy, named as the U.S., and to prepare themselves for the privileges of martyrdom.
A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran, since one may surely assume that the Israelis have made the necessary arrangements for a counterstrike even after a nuclear holocaust in Israel.
The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians–but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent–the threat of direct retaliation on Iran–is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision.
And we are told constantly suicide and murder are against Islam, and indeed both are, but that never has stopped suicidal Muslims using their faith from committing murder in the past. Why would it in Ahmadinejad’s scenario?
There is no question Ahmadinejad has a thirst for war. In almost every public announcement I have read from Ahmadinejad he calls for war, be it the destruction of Israel or the over-used phrase “death to America.” Ahmadinejad though views war as a good thing, because it would, in his mind, finally seal the fate once and for all for the Infidel population of the world and unite the Ummah.
Lewis continues:
A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. “I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another’s hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours.”
In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead–hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.
The real string puller in Iran is not Ahmadinejad, for his own strings are pulled by the Mullahs who believe their power is obtained through Allah. This is yet another rather obvious irony in the belief system of radical Islam, for Islamists claim no one can choose who to govern because it is Allah’s choice. How then can one decide, as in the case of Khomeini, that he should govern all? Is it not Allah’s choice?
When Ahmadinejad announced to the world that Iran had a nuclear program, something we already all knew, he called it a victory for Islam. He never mentioned the Iranian technology was purchased and was decades old. How can we be so certain that Iran’s nuclear program has anything to do with this supposed August 22 surprise? August 22 of this year is the date in which Iran has pledged to give its final answer to the EU3, the U.S., Russia and China in response to the offer to settle Iran’s nuclear program once and for all. Coincidence? I don’t think it is, and there’s a bit more to the story.
Assuming Iran does not already have a nuclear weapon, and there are a handul of people that are convinced Iran already has at least one nuclear warhead, this could be the date that Iran decides is used to signal to the entire world they are trying to end the world. They can do this by launching a direct attack upon Israel instead of using their proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, essentially using the Palestinian and Lebanese people as their personal meat grinders to hammer away at Israel. Iran does have missiles capable of hitting Israel and it has threatened to use these against Israel in the past.
This direct attack upon Israel would force the world into two corners; one on Israel’s side and the other not necessarily on Iran’s side but definitely not on Israel’s side. Iran would intend on using its own natural resources as bargaining chips in its war. It has already threatened such use. I hardly believe this would be the end of the world, but Iran sees itself as the protectorate of Islam and would see a scenario in which many nations declared war upon it as the end of the world. In other words Iran would see the issue as the world versus Islam, the exact scenario in which the 12th Imam is supposed to return within.
It would take a coincidence of enormous proportion to tie all that is currently going on with respect to Israel, increased insurgency from Iranian backed groups in Iraq, deadlines given on Iran’s nuclear program combined with Iran’s date of return on the proposal coinciding with a future surprise, Iran’s increased role in the Middle East with an Iranian attack upon Jerusalem. In fact some might say such a large coincidence must be a divine intention, and that’s exactly what Iran seems to be preparing.
Iran has had more than 20 years to prepare for what they believe will be the final showdown between Islam and the Infidel, yet nary is a peep about this in the U.S. media. Lewis’ column is the first I have strolled upon regarding this very scenario in a major media outlet, and I have tried to locate such news before. Could Iran be preparing to invade Poland?
Other takes on August 2nd:
Blog Lizzards: “Will Iran precipitate a conflagration, the final holocaust that will bring back the Hidden Imam and usher in the Moslem Millennium? Since we do not know, we must prepare for the worst: we must be ready with policy in case Iran directly attacks Israel on that date, thus widening a local war into a regional superwar… which could become a hyperwar — call it the Tenth Crusade — of Christendom (joined, perhaps, by Atheistan) against the Ummah.
We cannot allow ourselves to be sucker-punched again, as we were on September 11th. This time, we must make it clear that we’re well aware of Iran’s aspirations, and we’re prepared to offer martyrdom to as many jihadis as want it, all to protect our own ‘abode.’”
Hyscience: “To Iran, It’s about pride, power, and a radical Islamic ideology. For Ahmadinejad and the mullahs, a martyr’s heaven - sparked by an Islamic-induced apocalypse, is undoubtedly coming, sooner or later. Whether it happens on August 22 or not, if Iran is allowed to go nuclear, it will be very soon thereafter. In the meantime - count on the present conflict in Lebanon to be just a warmup.”
Right Truth who culls together many reports. Note none of those reports are in major publications.



what are our thoughts on this?
and what significance does august 22nd and this article hold for the muslim community.

it says that not both type of muslim agree with this 12th imam theory.
 
Seems like a lot of specualtion over nothing - Ahmadinejad has been towing the same rhetoric we've seen from Iran's clerics for years, but it's all talk and sabre rattling.

Iran isn't going to directly attack Israel because it doesn't benefit them in any way - at present Iran is building itself up as the anchor of resistance against US foreign policy in the Middle East, but that doesn't mean to say armed resistance - simply developing it's own prestige and influence.

The suggestion of a nuclear bomb is very far fetched - even the CIA thinks Iran is years away from having that level of nuclear technology - and if there was the realistic possibility that Iran not only had a nuclear-armed missle, and was planning to fire it at any of America's allies, Iran would face cruise missile bombardment of any facilities that may be remotely involved in the process.

It's also worth noting that Jerusalem is one-third Arab Palestinian - there's no way any Muslim ruler is going to advocate the direct massacre of these in order to get at Israel.

Let the 22nd pass, and let these apparent attempts at speculation be shown for what they are.

Also - moved to Politics.
 
I said:
Seems like a lot of specualtion over nothing - Ahmadinejad has been towing the same rhetoric we've seen from Iran's clerics for years, but it's all talk and sabre rattling.

Iran isn't going to directly attack Israel because it doesn't benefit them in any way - at present Iran is building itself up as the anchor of resistance against US foreign policy in the Middle East, but that doesn't mean to say armed resistance - simply developing it's own prestige and influence.

The suggestion of a nuclear bomb is very far fetched - even the CIA thinks Iran is years away from having that level of nuclear technology - and if there was the realistic possibility that Iran not only had a nuclear-armed missle, and was planning to fire it at any of America's allies, Iran would face cruise missile bombardment of any facilities that may be remotely involved in the process.

It's also worth noting that Jerusalem is one-third Arab Palestinian - there's no way any Muslim ruler is going to advocate the direct massacre of these in order to get at Israel.

Let the 22nd pass, and let these apparent attempts at speculation be shown for what they are.

Also - moved to Politics.


Brian, I agree with your above assessment of Iran. The other night, Jon Stewart's The Daily Show had an interesting (real life) guest: Vali Nasr, author of the new book, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape The Future,. His argument is that Iran, a Shiite theocracy, is emerging as a regional power in the Middle East, a region where Shiites comprise about half the population.

Because of the US invasion of Iraq and the removal of Saddam Hussein and his Sunni-dominated regime from power, the Shiites, through the "one man, one vote" democracy, have gained political control. Nasr who is as Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies for the Council on Foreign Relations and the Associate Chair of Research; Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, states that despite its growing ambitions, Iran may well hold the key to regional stability.

If you want to read more in depth about his theory, you can click on the following link: http://pewforum.org/events/index.php?EventID=120&source=google&gclid=CLT0hKav2oYCFSczGAodhxQh6A

His anaylsis of the situation in Iran is insightful and hopeful for peace; but only if the Bush administration responds with a enlightened diplomatic approach and stops using the axis of evil language. Guns and bombs will NOT bring Democracy to the Mideast!!
(For all the citizens in the USA: The neoconservatives have failed and it is now time to vote them out of power!! )
 
If anything, I would think he'd pick a day like Yom Kippur or Tisha B'Av to attack the Jewish state. Why use a Muslim holiday when mocking the Jews and their religion for their 'sins' is so much more fun and entertaining to the international community?

On the subject of targets, though, no Muslim nation would attack Jerusalem with missiles. It's not even the Arab population that's the concern (Hezbollah didn't have a problem hitting Arabs in Nazareth and Northern Israel). Jerusalem contains the Noble Sanctuary, the third holiest site in Islam, where Muhammed is said to have ascended into Heaven.

Iran firing nuclear weapons at Jerusalem would be the same as them firing nuclear weapons at Mecca or Medina. Every other Muslim nation would respond by invading Iran if any part of the Noble Sanctuary were damaged. Iran wouldn't take that risk. Instead, they would fire at cities that do not contain major Muslim holy sites, like Tel Aviv or Haifa.
 
Thanks for the clarification and points, Jamarz and Karimarie. :)
 
Well, Ahmadinejad was interviewed by the Guardian newspaper this week, and I didn't catch anything from the BBC reporting this suggesting any announcements or imminent events by him.
 
I heard something on NPR in the US yesterday that the 22nd commemorates Muhammed's, pbuh, famous ascension from the dome of the rock, also the site of the 2nd temple, to meet with Allah.

Perhaps some of our friends from the Islam garden can clarify this. The story that I remember is that the prophet of Islam was magically transported to a sanctuary there where he met Abraham, Moses, and Jesus who were praying at the place, and then he ascended upon his white horse, which had a special name, from the rock into heaven where he met with the Almighty, and returned later.

That's the story I remember of this mythical event, and, as I noted, some believe that this is the event commemorated on the 22nd.

flow....:)
 
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