c0de
Vassal
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Within the next 5 years there will be a crucial moment which will define the next century. The (former) head of the Mossad said that the coming Iranian Crises is just a precursor: the real problem is what will happen after. One reason for this is that a strike on Iranian targets will only set them back a couple of years (maybe a decade). But this was not why this person made this comment. The real problems actually start at this stage because this action will violently reconstruct, not just this particular region, but also affect the global structure of alliances and may lead to future regional conflicts outside the Middle East.
There are 4 possibilities:
Scenario #1: will also redefine the region but in a very positive way. A Two-State solution will also be revived because of a non-violent resolution on the Iranian front. Setting the stage for an integration of Israel with its Arab neighbors, fostering the re-emergence of a "Mediterranean Identity" after thousands of years.
Scenario #2: If a strike on Iran includes Israel, then hell breaks loose. This is the worst case scenario (for us, because all conflicts will then happen in our lifetimes). It will destroy all links the Arab world has with the West as their populations will immediately recognize the Iranians as "brothers" and unite against a perceived common threat. This will prompt Russia and China to take action immediately as well. So far, it seems that the US is holding back Israel. The key event was when they denied the sale of Air-Refuelers to the IAF. The IAF is currently not able to reach Iran with the ability to refuel their jets, as Turkey has denied the IAF to use its bases for any such attack.
Scenario #3: This is the most likely outcome. A limited coalition attack (or a solo effort by the US) within the next 5 years on Iranian nuclear facilities. This thread was mainly created to address the outcome of this scenario. This will preserve the Arab coalition, who are for now united against Iran. It will set the Iranian nuclear program back a decade (maybe) but it will almost ensure their continued efforts, possibly even causing a bump in their determination. The immediate fallout will be limited disruption of the commercial traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Maybe a few ballistic strikes on Israel. But for the most part, Iranian conventional capabilities do not pose any direct threat to NATO. However, the "blow back" in asymmetrical terms will be immense. Afghanistan, Iraq will be permanent war zones (forever) as Iran will now be fully involved in funding and equipping insurgencies. Israel will also face more lethal Hezbollah and Hamas, basically destroying any chance of a peaceful resolution for the Palestinians-Israelis. Most likely this will also result in a "Fortress Israel" which will be doomed in the long term, much like Masada.... and these are just the regional consequences. Internationally, the involvement of China and Russia will still take place, but over a longer period of time, giving a chance for all parties to field the weapon systems that are currently in development.
Scenario #4: Iran going nuclear is not much of a possibility, at least not at this stage. But if it happens, it will cause the Saudis to start their own program. It will also make Israel to (most likely) officially declare its own capabilities. What this basically means is that its diesel submarines will then be patrolling the oceans armed with nuclear tipped cruise missiles (if they aren't already).
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The next 5 years one of these scenarios will come to pass. This will define this century, and this century will define the rest of human history. Of course, there is always the unexpected. A happy ending is theoretically possible even without scenario #1. But the chances of regional conflicts in many areas of the world increases exponentially if this opportunity is lost.
Personally, I think Scenario 3 will be the one we will be playing out. But what happens after, I don't know. There is a chance that after much violence (in regional wars) there might be a "global peace". However, by the time the world will be a very different place. It's either that, or... the (very real) possibility of another "great war", where these regional conflicts end up triggering a direct confrontation involving all the players (The West vs the East). Any such conflict will invariably result in Armageddon.
There are 4 possibilities:
- De-escalation
- Escalation: Strike on Iran includes Israel
- Escalation: Strike on Iran does NOT include Israel
- Iran goes nuclear
Scenario #1: will also redefine the region but in a very positive way. A Two-State solution will also be revived because of a non-violent resolution on the Iranian front. Setting the stage for an integration of Israel with its Arab neighbors, fostering the re-emergence of a "Mediterranean Identity" after thousands of years.
Scenario #2: If a strike on Iran includes Israel, then hell breaks loose. This is the worst case scenario (for us, because all conflicts will then happen in our lifetimes). It will destroy all links the Arab world has with the West as their populations will immediately recognize the Iranians as "brothers" and unite against a perceived common threat. This will prompt Russia and China to take action immediately as well. So far, it seems that the US is holding back Israel. The key event was when they denied the sale of Air-Refuelers to the IAF. The IAF is currently not able to reach Iran with the ability to refuel their jets, as Turkey has denied the IAF to use its bases for any such attack.
Scenario #3: This is the most likely outcome. A limited coalition attack (or a solo effort by the US) within the next 5 years on Iranian nuclear facilities. This thread was mainly created to address the outcome of this scenario. This will preserve the Arab coalition, who are for now united against Iran. It will set the Iranian nuclear program back a decade (maybe) but it will almost ensure their continued efforts, possibly even causing a bump in their determination. The immediate fallout will be limited disruption of the commercial traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Maybe a few ballistic strikes on Israel. But for the most part, Iranian conventional capabilities do not pose any direct threat to NATO. However, the "blow back" in asymmetrical terms will be immense. Afghanistan, Iraq will be permanent war zones (forever) as Iran will now be fully involved in funding and equipping insurgencies. Israel will also face more lethal Hezbollah and Hamas, basically destroying any chance of a peaceful resolution for the Palestinians-Israelis. Most likely this will also result in a "Fortress Israel" which will be doomed in the long term, much like Masada.... and these are just the regional consequences. Internationally, the involvement of China and Russia will still take place, but over a longer period of time, giving a chance for all parties to field the weapon systems that are currently in development.
Scenario #4: Iran going nuclear is not much of a possibility, at least not at this stage. But if it happens, it will cause the Saudis to start their own program. It will also make Israel to (most likely) officially declare its own capabilities. What this basically means is that its diesel submarines will then be patrolling the oceans armed with nuclear tipped cruise missiles (if they aren't already).
---
The next 5 years one of these scenarios will come to pass. This will define this century, and this century will define the rest of human history. Of course, there is always the unexpected. A happy ending is theoretically possible even without scenario #1. But the chances of regional conflicts in many areas of the world increases exponentially if this opportunity is lost.
Personally, I think Scenario 3 will be the one we will be playing out. But what happens after, I don't know. There is a chance that after much violence (in regional wars) there might be a "global peace". However, by the time the world will be a very different place. It's either that, or... the (very real) possibility of another "great war", where these regional conflicts end up triggering a direct confrontation involving all the players (The West vs the East). Any such conflict will invariably result in Armageddon.
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