CORONA VIRUS

[RJM]

In China the worst seems to be over:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...ronavirus-outbreak-slows-200317084803189.html

In China, life returning to normal as coronavirus outbreak slows
Draconian measures, which appear to have quelled the outbreak in China, are gradually being relaxed.

"... With so many provinces having downgraded their emergency response levels, China is slowly - and cautiously - returning to normal life.

Classes are gradually resuming after most students spent the last month or so at home and studying online. In provinces classified as "low risk of infection," including Guizhou, Qinghai, Tibet and Xinjiang, local governments have allowed educational institutions to resume classes this month ..." etc

 

[Aupmanyav]

Bad time for Europe (UK, no more with Europe) and Iran.

 

[wil]

Bad time for Europe (UK, no more with Europe) and Iran.

The world is getting a kick in the pants.

 

[RJM]

The world is getting a kick in the pants.

It's not the bubonic plague, it's not really killing people. It is attacking our world economies and human structures. It is showing us how much we cannot predict or do, in spite of all our human wisdom. It is attacking our smugness and superiority over nature. In a way it's the perfect plague for our time, imo ...

 

[wil]

it's not really killing people

???

 

[Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine]

It's not the bubonic plague, it's not really killing people. It is attacking our world economies and human structures. It is showing us how much we cannot predict or do, in spite of all our human wisdom. It is attacking our smugness and superiority over nature. In a way it's the perfect plague for our time, imo ...

Actually, covid-19 has. Anyone who has told you differently doesn't understand this virus. Hell, two members of one family died within days, if not hours, of each other! And five of their other relatives are being hospitalized!

I'm in two of the high/er risk groups (I'm over fifty and I have diabetes/cardiac arrhythmia/asthma.) The only difference that I can think of between the bubonic plague and covid-19 is they know how the plague was transmitted/its "origins", while there's no idea on the genesis of covid-19, just that it's transmitted via "droplets" (both produced when sneezing and coughing.) That's why it's recommended that you wash your hands both frequently and properly. I've built a mental "music collection" of 20-second "sound bites" to use as a hands-free "timer" each time I wash my hands (recommended that trick irl a few times in idle chit-chat, including to a colleague of my Tuesday doctor [he never thought of doing that himself!].)

Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

 

[Aupmanyav]

.. it's not really killing people. It is attacking our world economies and human structures. It is showing us how much we cannot predict or do, in spite of all our human wisdom. It is attacking our smugness and superiority over nature. In a way it's the perfect plague for our time, imo ...

That is subjective. What number has to be reached before you will consider it as killing people? Though I generally agree to your post. It is more than 8,000 as of now. Of course, it is destructive enough for economies.

 

[Aussie Thoughts]

That's why it's recommended that you wash your hands both frequently and properly.

Good luck convincing the native folks down here to wash their hands. Watched one of our lads today come in from the field for his tea. Spits in his hands, rubs 'em together and dries 'em on his chest hair!

Know what though, them blokes seldom ever get sick and when they do, they go off in the bush, come back with some roots and it's all over in a day or two.

 

[RJM]

It is more than 8,000 as of now

Sure -- out of a world poulation of 8 billion. I'm not minimizing it. There is a small percentage of fatalities. But it's not deadly to most people who get it. However the extended socio-economic damage is severe?

The only difference that I can think of between the bubonic plague and covid-19 is they know how the plague was transmitted/it's "origins"

Very few people survived it who contracted it.

 

[wil]

However the extended socio-economic damage is severe?

I'm still thinking we will see change that wouldn't have occurred for decades implemented now...

 

[Thomas]

The Imperial College London modelling that was a poke in the arse with a sharp stick for the UK Govt (enough to do an about face although they're desperately trying to make it look otherwise) was based on America continuing its 'mitigation' treatment methods ...

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

These figures do not factor death from other circumstances which will increase significantly as healthcare systems are overwhelmed and crash.

The rush for a vaccine could be problematic. To do the job properly requires at least 18 months testing, on all health groups, on all health conditions, no long-term effects, etc. If not, you end up with mega law suits, so I'm guessing inoculation will come with signing a waiver absolving everyone of all responsibility in the case of unforeseen catastrophic effects. Or the govt has to accept liability.

A possible long-term picture is the process of 'suppression and release'. This is when you go into lockdown for two months, release for a month, contagion picks up, lockdown again ... and so on to keep the epidemic within manageable bounds (healthcare not overwhelmed) until inoculation comes on line.

Either way, unless something else happens, looks like we're in it for the long haul.

Report available here

 

[Thomas]

I'm wondering, once we get through this, will we be faced with a generation of austerity measures as govts seek to build up their financial reserves and the rich claw back some of the money they've paid out?

On the upside for the mega wealthy , this is an ideal opportunity to snap up those businesses that go bust, so that when we do recover the competition is much reduced.

Also, the gap between the rich and poor, the haves and have nots, could be even wider than before ... as it'll be the poor who shoulder most part of the burden of repairing the deficits.

 

[Thomas]

Here we are calling on retired healthcare workers to come and fill in the gaps.

'So you want me, one of the high-risk sector, to come and work on the front line?' Yes.
'Am I getting paid for this?' No. You're volunteering.
'OK. Do I get protective clothing?' Er, no.
'Do I get some immunisation treatment?' Er, no.
'Do I get healthcare if I fall sick?' Er ...

You can see where this is heading.

 

[Thomas]

Suddenly, the 'highly valued' and 'must be protected' occupations are teachers, doctors and nurses, healthcare workers, emergency service personnel, etc.

And all this time we've been thinking it is bankers, brokers, etc., etc.

 

[RJM]

China has reported no new cases today for the first time:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-update-china-intl-hnk/index.html

"Hong Kong (CNN)China has reported no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases for the first time since the the pandemic began, marking a major turning point in the global battle to contain Covid-19.

At a news conference on Thursday morning, officials from China's National Health Commission announced there had been just 34 new cases in the past 24 hours -- all imported from overseas -- and eight new deaths, all in Hubei, the province where the virus was first identified. There were there no new reported cases in Hubei at all on Wednesday.

The milestone will likely be held up as proof of the ongoing success of China's sweeping, top-down efforts to control the virus, despite persistent allegations that local officials mishandled the initial outbreak. Just last month, mainland China was reporting thousands of new cases every day, and was considered the most high-risk infection area in the world.

In the weeks following the early spread of the virus, the government enacted draconian quarantine measures and strict travel restrictions affecting hundreds of millions of citizens. In some hard-hit cities, residents have been unable to leave their apartments for more than a month, while transport between major population hubs has been limited or halted altogether.

The unprecedented nature of the measures has exacted a steep toll, however, both on the many millions of ordinary Chinese forced to endure life under lockdown and the country's economy, which has seen a steep decline in recent weeks ..."

 

[Aupmanyav]

IMHO, that is a doomsday report. Corona virus may not be that destructive as evidenced in China.

 

[wil]

Will this wake us up to the regency if climate change?

 

[Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine]

Suddenly, the 'highly valued' and 'must be protected' occupations are teachers, doctors and nurses, healthcare workers, emergency service personnel, etc.

And all this time we've been thinking it is bankers, brokers, etc., etc.

According to one representative in Washington, politicians are a "protected class" (paraphrased from an interview; politician was wearing a fooking gas mask, plus he kvetched that politicians have one of the most dangerous jobs during this crisis due to "needing to shake everyone's hand"!

As you might've guessed, I spent quite a while with the delegation after that.

Phyllis Sidhe_Uaine

 

[RJM]

This was forwarded to me today:

But the virus isn't over until people start to mingle again. There's a very depressing atmosphere here today, in Devon SW England.

Schools are closing tomorrow and most restaurants boarded up. Over 70's are going to be grounded from Monday.

They're saying busses may be suspended because they're making no money, and the supermarket shelves are stripped.

The weather is totally gloomy too. Not a good feeling around.

 

[Namaste Jesus]

Good luck convincing the native folks down here to wash their hands. Watched one of our lads today come in from the field for his tea. Spits in his hands, rubs 'em together and dries 'em on his chest hair!

Ha, apparently they haven't managed to kill off all their beneficial bacteria yet from the overuse of Purell and the like!

I'm a bit more cavalier on the subject than perhaps I should be given the fact that I'm among those considered "Risk Group" but I look at it this way, I survived Dengue fever, so what the hell! At that time the Fiji morgue was so overwhelmed, they had the overflow of those who had succumb stacked in wooden coffins outside in the parking area!

You know, on October 24, 2009, then President Obama declared Swine Flu (H1N1) a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected and that 4,000 had died.

Even then, I don't remember such an uproar as we have now, everyone just went on with their normal lives.