As intriguing as this possible explanation is, it does not factor in all the elements of the Gospel account.
1) The ship that the disciples were on was in the midst of the Sea of Galilee (according to Matthew 14:9) when the incident occurred. The Sea of Galilee is some 33 miles across. Even accounting that there could be a sheet of ice floating underneath, for Jesus to venture all the way from shore on that sheet at an assumed half distance of give or take 16 miles is rather unreasonable, particularly under heavy wave conditions.
2) Even if Jesus did walk on 16 miles of ice, it certainly would not be weather conducive to be sailing around on a ship amidst icy waters. Surely the disciples would not have stayed in such hazardous conditions, especially at night into the fourth watch. Not to mention that being dark, it would have been extremely dangerous to go walking into the ice.
3) The conditions at the time of the incident doesn't seem to have been particularly cold anyways. Jesus just finished feeding 5000 people that previous evening in a grassy field, following a healing session. There is no indication of inclement weather at the time of the feeding.
4) Jesus wasn't the only one to walk on the water that night. When He approached the boat, Peter asked permission to come out of the boat and walk toward Him. Why would Peter feel inclined to ask permission? If the ice seemed stable to hold Jesus, then Peter could have just hopped out on his own accord. Furthermore, once Peter got out of the boat and started walking toward Jesus, as soon as he took his eyes off Jesus and loked around, he became afraid and started sinking. Did the ice sense that Peter was afraid and opened up? And then when Jesus took Peters hand, He was back on top of the water. That is certainly not normal behavior for an ice sheet.